Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
