A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
